THE DEBATE:  No "Short Takes" tonight so we can examine the Republican debate that just took place.

I try to study the debate itself, but then monitor the comments on television and across the web. 

General reaction:  The debate confirmed that there are three serious contenders at the moment.  They are Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and perhaps Marco Rubio.  Chris Christie has made some progress, but has not caught on.  Jeb Bush, a good man but a so-so campaigner, remains in the race.  If there's a catastrophe at the top, he might jump up, but I doubt it.  There were no shocks in the debate that would change the conventional wisdom.

A Frank Luntz focus group, held in the critical primary state of South Carolina (where the debate was held), decided unanimously that Ted Cruz won the debate.  Other commentators, though, felt Trump had won.  Both Trump and Cruz sounded more "presidential" then they had in previous debates, elevating both men.  And indeed, most of the commentary surrounded these two.  But Rubio was given wide praise for his passion and clarity.  He would be an effective opponent to Hillary Clinton – a young man of the 21st century, against an older woman who is on the cutting edge of the 1960s.  And Rubio has an appeal to the political center, a danger area for both Trump and Cruz.

The Iowa caucuses take place on February 1st.

The New Hampshire primary is February 9th.

South Carolina – February 20th.

Super Tuesday is March 1st – 14 states, including the powerhouses of Texas and Virginia.

Many primaries in March, including Florida, Illinois and Ohio on March 15th.  Both Rubio and Bush are from Florida.  The one who loses his own state is out.

So, we should have a very vivid picture of this race within two months.  That doesn't mean we will be crowning anyone.  It may be that candidates dig in and that no one breaks through to the 50% mark.  It may be that Trump loses steam.  It may be that someone makes a serious blunder.  And then the talk of a contested convention will grow.  And that's fun.

January 14, 2016